Naschrift

$\eqalign{ & P_{eik} = pq^4 \cr & P_{\neg eik} = (1 - p)(1 - q)^4 \cr & P_R = \frac{{pq^4 }} {{pq^4 + (1 - p)(1 - q)^4 }} \cr & P_{q = \frac{1} {2}} = \frac{{p\left( {\frac{1} {2}} \right)^4 }} {{p\left( {\frac{1} {2}} \right)^4 + (1 - p)(1 - \left( {\frac{1} {2}} \right))^4 }} \cr & P_{q = \frac{1} {2}} = \frac{p} {{p + (1 - p)}} = p \cr}$